If you have just a few pieces of a puzzle with tens of thousands of pieces and no reference picture, you won’t know what you’re looking at or how the pieces all fit together. As you gain more pieces, gradually you’ll get an idea of what the big picture looks like and how the pieces fit together. This is what The Fourth Turning offers, although instead of a cardboard puzzle, it offers insight into why events happen the way they do.
In The Fourth Turning, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe reject the notion of linear time, in which things just happen one after the other. They propose a theory of cyclical time, with similar events recurring at regular intervals and generational archetypes playing different roles as time progresses. Their theory describes four “turnings” that each last for approximately 20-25 years and that together comprise one “saeculum”, which lasts for 80-100 years. Each turning has its own advantages and disadvantages that distinguish it from the others, much like the seasons in a year. Most people only experience each turning once in life, which makes it difficult to notice patterns and symmetries without a thorough knowledge of history.
According to their theory, every saeculum proceeds as follows: the first turning is a High in which most things are going in the right direction if they’re not already there, an Awakening that has people question and push back against the status quo, an Unraveling that has old institutions and ways of life giving way to new ones, and a Crisis that threatens civilization itself. Although their book was published in 1997, the authors predicted that the Crisis would begin around 2005. If they’re correct, then we’ve made it through most of the hard times and can expect the High to start sometime in the next decade. Past Crises have seen massive wars, major economic depressions, political revolutions, and other events that had the potential to end civilization. There’s no guarantee that we’ll make it, but there’s quite the reward to be had on the other side if we’re successful.
The book cuts through philosophy, politics, and economics while incorporating history and psychology to formulate its central theory of cyclical time. In doing so, the authors give no impression that they favor any particular turning over another or have a preference regarding social order or political/religious philosophy. Their focus is purely on the patterns that have occurred throughout history and the implications that those patterns contain. Even though they invariably got some of their predictions wrong, they still managed to get most of the beats correct even if they missed some of the notes. Considering that the book was published about 20 years ago at the time of this writing, their predictions for events that have sense occurred almost give the impression of them having a crystal ball. This book will probably require read several readings to absorb the sheer amount of information and fine details it contains, although it’s still an easy read for a layperson.
If you’re feeling distressed about current events, reading The Fourth Turning will probably give you a renewed sense of optimism about the future. Knowing that there’s a rhythm to life and that major events can be predicted fairly easily once that rhythm is understood has completely changed my perspectives on a wide range of subjects and given me hours of wonderment about the world in which I live. For a much more thorough exploration of the themes of the book, check out this article from The Art of Manliness. I hope this has been interesting and helpful, and I will see you in the next post.