Within the past few years, I learned of the term “black swans”. Black swans are things that never even cross your mind as possibilities until after they happen. The term came from back when all swans were thought to be white, thus nobody would ever even think that they might see a black swan; seeing one caught them completely off guard. This reminds me that nobody really knows as much as they think they do, especially about future events.
I’ve long been a fan of the phrase “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” My version is “Good intentions don’t automatically guarantee good outcomes.” Lots of bad things have occurred, even when people were trying to do good, because there are tons of variables that can’t be controlled or, in some cases, even known. Therefore, unintended consequences are all but guaranteed, especially with large ventures that involve a lot of moving parts.
There are consequences with every decision you make. It can be easy to forget that because sometimes you like what happens and so you may not consider those outcomes to be consequences. Keep this in mind whenever you think one course of action won’t have any negative consequences. Also, weigh all possible consequences instead of considering any of them to be impossible; you can’t know in advance which ones will or won’t occur. A plan can unfold quite differently in reality than how it worked out in your mind.
Uncertainty also often comes into play in interactions with other people. At times their intentions may appear obvious, but is that actually the case? Do you truly know someone else’s intentions or do you just assume you know them? What if their true intentions are quite different than the ones you appear to have detected? Assuming the worst often results in needless trouble so it’s best to be careful by talking with them to find out what they actually believe and want.
It’s easy for me to miss potential problems in my own ideas. Something that helps me find such issues is to listen to people who criticize what I have to say and take their points into consideration. I can be my own positive critic when I’m in the proper state of mind. However, since I have trouble doing it consistently and effectively, I don’t rely on it as my first line of defense against black swans. Additionally, I enjoy working with other people to smooth out the rough edges and create something better than either of us could develop on our own. As I become more self-aware and at peace within myself, I’m able to more easily notice my own blind spots and work around them. That’s been wonderful, though they still catch me by surprise every so often. We’re all susceptible to black swans and blind spots. That’s one of the prices for being human. What we can do is help each other notice them and avoid falling victim to them. That’s how we all get to the next level.